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Archive for October 12th, 2008

How This Bear Market Compares

Posted by Yogesh on Sunday, 12 October, 2008

Nytimes.com has a very good interactive comparison of all the bear market since the great depression in 1929.

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America For Sale: Price Reduced

Posted by Yogesh on Sunday, 12 October, 2008

Got cash? This could end up being one of history’s quintessential buying opportunities. The case for ExxonMobil, Deere, Microsoft — and more.

AT THE DEPTHS OF THE 1973-74 BEAR MARKET — the worst of the post-war period — when the Dow Jones industrial average was approaching its low of 577, Warren Buffett told Forbes magazine that he felt like “an oversexed guy in a whorehouse. This is the time to start investing.”

Buffett’s words may have been indelicate — Forbes ended up changing the world “whorehouse” to “harem” when the interview ran — but the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway was on the mark because that era produced some of the best bargains of the past 50 years.

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Scott Pollack for Barron’s
Investors willing to show a little patience can find discounts on everything from real estate to stocks, bonds and commodities.

The stock market now is suffering a comparable decline to that historic ’73-74 loss, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, at 8,451, having fallen 40% from its October 2007 peak and 36% this year. The peak-to-trough drop in ’73-’74 was 45%. The opportunities now could be equally attractive with some market indexes nearing, their 2002 lows and most major stocks valued at less than 10 times estimated 2008 earnings. A bullish Buffett has been buying lately, although his purchases haven’t directly involved common stocks. He got equity warrants along with his attractive preferred-stock investments in General Electric and Goldman Sachs. Berkshire also has bought more stock this year in Wells Fargo, Buffett’s favorite bank.

“There are extraordinary opportunities on many fronts for investors, from real estate to stocks and bonds and commodities,” says Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. “Assets are being given away. They may not do well in the next several months, but looking ahead two or three years, investors may see some of the best opportunities of their lives.”

The crisis in the credit markets has highlighted the value of a strong balance sheet, an underappreciated quality during the bull run ending in 2007. Investors who once clamored for CEOs to take on debt to buy back stock now are quizzing corporations about debt maturities in the coming months because of refinancing fears.

This is a time when cash is king, enabling well-endowed companies to bypass the credit markets and potentially pick up bargain acquisitions in coming months.

We’ve highlighted more than a dozen cash-rich companies, ranging from ExxonMobil , which boasts Corporate America’s biggest cash hoard at $30 billion, to smaller outfits like Barry Diller’s IAC/InterActiveCorp and KBR , an engineering and construction company, whose cash accounts for over half their market values.

With such broad and deep losses throughout the stock market, a case can be made for virtually every major sector, including drugs, financials, consumer staples, technology and energy. (On the opposite page you’ll find a chart with 25 candidates for your portfolio.) Read the rest of this entry »

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